The delicate power balance between progressive and conservative forces on Newcastle Council could change yet again after the Ward 3 by-election on Saturday 21 February.
This will be the last in the spate of local by-elections arising from last year’s sensational revelations of illegal political donations by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).
This by-election is a domino effect from the resignation of former Lord Mayor Jeff McCloy, who played a central role in the matters uncovered by ICAC.
The by-election in November last year to replace Jeff McCloy was won by Labor’s Nuatali Nelmes, thereby creating a vacancy in her former Ward 3 councillor position.
Clr Nelmes’ election as Lord Mayor changed the balance of power on Newcastle Council, which had been dominated since the 2012 general council election by a tight voting bloc of seven conservative “McLoyals”, comprising Jeff McCloy, four Liberal councillors, and two conservative Independents.
Between Clr McCloy’s resignation and Clr Nelmes’ election, the (now former) Deputy Lord Mayor, Liberal councillor Brad Luke, chaired council meetings, using his casting vote to break frequent 6-all voting deadlocks in favour of the conservative bloc.
This was reversed when Clr Nelmes was elected Lord Mayor.
Whoever wins the Ward 3 by-election will join the two current Ward 3 councillors, the Liberal's Sharon Waterhouse and conservative Independent Andrea Rufo, who was elected in 2012 with the help of Liberal preferences and has voted with the McCloyal bloc since his election.
The Ward 3 result will either return the conservative 7-6 council voting majority, or consolidate the shift to a more progressive council evident in last year’s Lord Mayoral by-election.
Five candidates have nominated. On paper, Labor’s Declan Clausen is the favourite.
The by-election is to replace a former Labor councillor position, and if Mr Clausen isn’t elected Ward 3 will be without a Labor councillor for the first time since the current ward system was introduced in 1995.
Labor maintained a slender majority in Ward 3 in the 2012 general council election, in the face of a massive conservative swing, and despite a cross-promotional advertising deal between Jeff McCloy and the Liberals that hitched the Liberal ward tickets to the big-spending McCloy electoral bandwagon.
In keeping with the approach the Liberals have adopted since last year’s damaging ICAC revelations, they’re not fielding an official Liberal Party candidate in this local by-election.
Instead, they’re pinning their hopes on Independent Kath Elliott, who, as the standard-bearer conservative candidate, is the next most likely contender to win.
Less than two percent separated the Labor and Liberal primary votes at the 2012 council election, and Ms Elliott will be hoping for a strong conservative by-election vote.
She’ll also be hoping to tap into the traditional support that Ward 3 voters have shown for Independents - though that support has usually been directed to Independents who live in the Ward 3 area, and may not translate as strongly to Ms Elliott, who gives her address as Hamilton.
If this by-election is close, the distribution of preferences from The Greens Nevenka Bareham and the two minor Independent candidates (Allan Warren and Arjay Martin) – all of whom live in the Ward 3 area - could decide the outcome.
At the time of writing, candidates were yet to announce their preference recommendations.
As the recent Queensland state election has confirmed, Australian elections can be extremely volatile at the moment, and by-elections are usually even more unpredictable than general elections.
Voting in the by-election is compulsory for all Ward 3 residents.
Ward 3 includes the suburbs of Georgetown, Jesmond, Kotara, Lambton, New Lambton, New Lambton Heights, North Lambton, Waratah, Waratah West, and parts of Wallsend.
The Ward 3 by-election candidates (in their order on the ballot paper) are:
Kath Elliott (Independent
Allan Warren (Independent)
Nevenka Bareham (The Greens)
Arjay Martin (Independent)
Declan Clausen (Labor)
For more information about the Ward 3 by-election, including postal voting, pre-poll voting, electoral roll information, and candidates statements, see the NSW Electoral Commission website, or call the Electoral Commission on 1300 135 736, or call in to the Returning Office at 88 Park Avenue, Kotara.
Other links:
* Statements lodged by the candidates.
* If you’re not sure if you live in Ward 3, you’ll find a map on the Newcastle Council website.
* Polling booths will be open on election day from 8am to 6pm. A list and map of polling places is available here.
* Pre-poll voting starts on 9 February at 88 Park Avenue, Kotara, and will operate between 8:30am and 5pm until Thursday 19 February (except for weekends), and on Friday 20 February from 8:30am to 6:00pm.
* Postal vote application forms can be downloaded here.
