Newcastle Lord Mayoral election will test McCloyals' performance

The local by-election avalanche triggered by ICAC’s Operation Spicer is set to transform Newcastle’s political landscape.

Much of the focus will be on the two by-elections for the state seats of Newcastle and Charlestown on 25 October, in which voters will elect replacements for the former Liberal MPs Tim Owen and Andrew Cornwell, who both resigned after admitting to ICAC that they accepted illegal developer donations.

On the numbers, Labor’s Tim Crakanthorp and Jodie Harrison have to start out firm favourites, but the recent instability of local politics and the usual by-election volatility mean that a result from out of the blue isn’t out of the question. 

In Newcastle, you’d have to rate conservative Independent Karen Howard and The Greens Michael Osborne as having an outside chance of upsetting the pundits.

The absence of Liberal candidates in both these state by-elections means that a change in the complexion of local political representation is inevitable, though the result won’t affect who is in government in NSW (that will be decided next March).

But on 15 November – just three weeks after the state by-elections – Newcastle voters will turn out for a by-election with very different possibilities and with much more significant implications for local governance.

The contest for filling the vacancy created by Jeff McCloy’s resignation as Newcastle’s Lord Mayor (another fallout from ICAC) is likely to significantly affect the reality of what happens in our city.

As this column has frequently reported, Newcastle Council decisions during Mr McCloy’s tenure were often determined by a seven to six vote, with the dominant “McCloyals” bloc comprising the former Lord Mayor, the four Liberal councillors and two conservative Independents.

Since Mr McCloy’s resignation, his place has been filled by Liberal Councillor Brad Luke, who was controversially elected Deputy Lord Mayor soon after the 2012 council election, in one of the earliest indications of what was to become the dominant voting pattern.

As Acting Lord Mayor, Clr Luke now chairs council meetings, and council decisions now often turn on his casting vote, the established mechanism for breaking an otherwise tied vote.

Clr Luke inevitably uses his casting vote to support the Liberal-Independent voting bloc.

The Lord Mayoral by-election could change all that.

So far, only two candidates have confirmed that they are definitely intending to contest the Lord Mayoral ballot: Labor’s Nuatali Nelmes and The Greens Therese Doyle, both current Newcastle councillors.

The Liberals didn’t run a candidate in the 2012 Lord Mayoral election, opting instead to support Jeff McCloy, but they are expected to field a candidate for the by-election, and Clr Luke has indicated that he’s interested.

Former Newcastle councillor and previous Lord Mayoral hopeful Aaron Buman has also indicated that he might run, and if things go to form it’s pretty much inevitable that by the time nominations close on 15 October the field will include a few Independents and minor party candidates.

Again, on the bare numbers, you’d have to say that Clr Nelmes is the starting favourite.

If elected, her casting vote would decide tied votes.

How Labor representatives vote in opposition isn’t always a reliable predictor of how they’ll vote in government, but you’d expect that to change at least a number of council positions adopted by the McCloyals, especially on controversial local planning issues such as the proposed high rise buildings, the Newcastle rail line, and cuts to council services.

Voters hoping for a change in council secrecy might be disappointed, because, while Clr Nelmes has proclaimed her general support for openness and transparency, she’s also openly backed secret councillor briefings and consistently opposed moves by the two Greens councillors to make these more open and transparent – a point that is certain to be made by The Greens’ Clr Doyle during the campaign.

If the Liberals do run, the Lord Mayoral by-election will also be the first opportunity that local voters will have to express how they feel about the general performance of the McCloyal council voting bloc, and about the illegal developer donations scandals that have triggered the by-elections.

Sad, frustrating and confounding it all may be - but it’s certainly not boring or insignificant.